Kenyans have been warned to prepare for a week of widespread rainfall, with the Kenya Meteorological Department forecasting showers and thunderstorms across all 47 counties between November 10 and 16, 2026.
The latest forecast comes as concerns over the anticipated El Niño phenomenon continue to grow, particularly among residents of flood-prone areas who fear a repeat of the deadly flooding that previously devastated parts of the country. While several regions are expected to experience persistent rainfall, others will contend with scorching daytime temperatures and unusually cold nights.
Highlights
- Kenya Met forecasts rainfall in parts of all 47 counties between November 10 and 16.
- Several regions are expected to experience afternoon thunderstorms and night showers.
- Temperatures could exceed 35°C in parts of nine counties.
- Some areas in the central highlands could record nighttime temperatures below 10°C.
- Residents of flood-prone areas are increasingly concerned about the possibility of extreme rainfall linked to El Niño.
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Kenya Met Issues Seven-Day Rainfall Alert
The Kenya Meteorological Department has issued a nationwide weather advisory, warning that different parts of the country should expect rainfall over the next seven days.
According to its forecast for November 10–16, showers are expected across all 47 counties, although the intensity and timing will differ depending on the region.
Some areas are likely to experience rainfall in the morning, while others will receive afternoon showers accompanied by thunderstorms. Nighttime rainfall is also expected in several counties.
Counties Expected to Receive Morning Rains
The morning rainfall forecast covers several counties across the country.
In the central and eastern regions, showers are expected in parts of Embu, Kajiado, Kiambu, Kirinyaga, Laikipia, Machakos, Mandera, Meru, Murang’a, Nairobi, Nyandarua, Nyeri and Tharaka-Nithi.
Western and lakeside counties, including Busia, Siaya, Kisumu, Kisii, Homa Bay and Migori, are also expected to experience morning rainfall.
Turkana and Wajir are among the other areas likely to receive showers during the morning hours.
Along the Coast, residents in Kwale, Mombasa, Kilifi, Tana River and Lamu should also anticipate morning rainfall.
However, sunny intervals are expected in parts of Baringo, Bomet, Bungoma, Elgeyo Marakwet, Kakamega, Kericho, Nakuru, Nandi, Narok, Nyamira, Trans Nzoia, Uasin Gishu, Vihiga, Kitui, Taita Taveta, Samburu, Garissa, Marsabit, Isiolo and West Pokot.
Afternoon Thunderstorms Expected in Several Counties
The afternoon forecast points to further rainfall across much of the country.
Counties expected to receive afternoon showers include Embu, Garissa, Kajiado, Kiambu, Kilifi, Kirinyaga, Kitui, Kwale, Laikipia, Lamu, Machakos, Makueni, Mandera, Marsabit, Meru, Mombasa, Murang’a, Nairobi, Nyandarua, Nyeri, Isiolo, Taita Taveta, Samburu, Tana River, Tharaka-Nithi and Wajir.
The situation could be more intense in some western, Rift Valley and lakeside counties, where showers are likely to come with thunderstorms.
These include Baringo, Bomet, Bungoma, Busia, Elgeyo Marakwet, Homa Bay, Kakamega, Kericho, Kisii, Kisumu, Migori, Nakuru, Nandi, Narok, Nyamira, Siaya, Trans Nzoia, Uasin Gishu, Vihiga and West Pokot.
Residents in these areas are encouraged to remain alert, particularly during periods of heavy rainfall.
Night Showers and Unusual Temperatures
The meteorological department has also identified several counties that could experience rainfall after sunset.
These include Busia, Embu, Homa Bay, Kajiado, Kakamega, Kiambu, Kilifi, Kirinyaga, Kisumu, Kwale, Laikipia, Lamu, Machakos, Mandera, Marsabit, Meru, Migori, Mombasa, Murang’a, Nairobi, Nyandarua, Nyeri, Siaya, Tana River, Tharaka-Nithi, Vihiga and Wajir.
Other counties, including Bungoma, Baringo, Bomet, Elgeyo Marakwet, Kericho, Kisii, Garissa, Nakuru, Nandi, Narok, Nyamira, Makueni, Trans Nzoia, Uasin Gishu, Kitui, Taita Taveta and West Pokot, are expected to experience partly cloudy nighttime conditions.
Despite the anticipated rainfall, some parts of the country will continue experiencing high temperatures.
Average daytime maximum temperatures could rise above 35°C in Garissa, Wajir, Tana River, Lamu, Kilifi, Isiolo, Marsabit, Samburu and Turkana.
Meanwhile, residents in parts of the central highlands should prepare for colder nights. Minimum temperatures are expected to drop below 10°C in selected areas of Meru, Nyeri, Nyandarua and Nakuru.
El Niño Fears Grow as Flood Survivors Express Concern
The latest weather advisory comes at a time when Kenyans are increasingly concerned about the possibility of an intense El Niño season.
The anticipated weather phenomenon has raised questions about the country’s preparedness, especially in communities that have previously suffered devastating floods.
In Nairobi, residents of Kibera are among those worried about the potential consequences of another period of extreme rainfall.
Some residents fear that their homes, many of which are constructed using lightweight materials, may not withstand powerful downpours or rising floodwaters.
Their concerns are informed by the devastating floods that followed heavy rainfall on March 6, when 60 people reportedly lost their lives.
The disaster caused widespread destruction, with homes and infrastructure affected in several parts of the country.
For families living in informal settlements, the possibility of another similar disaster presents a particularly worrying situation.
What El Niño Could Mean for Kenya
El Niño is a natural climate pattern associated with warmer-than-usual ocean surface temperatures across parts of the equatorial Pacific.
The phenomenon can influence weather systems worldwide, including rainfall patterns in East Africa.
In Kenya, El Niño conditions are often associated with increased rainfall, although the effects can differ depending on geographical location and prevailing atmospheric conditions.
The possibility of unusually heavy rainfall has therefore increased the urgency for communities, county governments and emergency response agencies to prepare.
As the short rainy season progresses, residents in flood-prone neighbourhoods are being reminded of the importance of following official weather advisories and taking necessary precautions.
With rainfall expected across the country over the coming week, the focus is now on preparedness, public safety and preventing another devastating flooding emergency.
As Kenya enters another rainy period, the biggest question is no longer just how much rain will fall, but whether communities and authorities are adequately prepared to protect lives and livelihoods when the downpours arrive.
