Four years into President William Ruto’s administration, Kenya’s agriculture sector is showing signs of change, with farmers in several major value chains recording higher prices, improved market access and faster payments. Coffee appears to be the biggest success story, while dairy, sugar and cotton have also posted notable gains. But tea and other struggling value chains show that better production figures do not always translate into better incomes for farmers.

Highlights

• Coffee farmers are seeing higher payments and faster settlement of proceeds.
• Coffee sales at the Nairobi Coffee Exchange have already surpassed the previous season’s full-year value.
• Sugarcane farmers are reporting improvements in payment reliability.
• Dairy production and the volume of milk entering formal markets have increased.
• Tea remains a challenge, with farmer prices falling despite strong sector earnings.
• Cotton production and yields are improving, but limited local demand remains a major obstacle.

Main Story

Coffee Leads the Reform Story

Among Kenya’s major agricultural value chains, coffee provides some of the clearest evidence that changes in marketing and payment systems can make a difference.

When President William Ruto took office in 2022, some coffee farmers were receiving between Sh50 and Sh60 per kilogramme. The government has since introduced measures aimed at reducing delays, increasing farmers’ share of earnings and limiting unnecessary deductions.

One of the biggest changes has been the Direct Settlement System, which is designed to ensure farmers receive proceeds from coffee sales within five days.

Ruto has said payments have reached as high as Sh158 per kilogramme in some factories, although he wants farmers to eventually earn between Sh250 and Sh300 per kilogramme.

The numbers also point to stronger activity in the sector.

Coffee production increased by 3.8 per cent to 51,400 tonnes during the 2024/25 season, according to KNBS.

Meanwhile, by Auction Sale 29 of the 2025/26 season, coffee traded through the Nairobi Coffee Exchange had generated Sh31.94 billion. That was already above the Sh27.92 billion recorded during the entire previous season.

Farmers had sold 36.36 million kilogrammes of clean coffee worth $247.62 million, compared with 31.33 million kilogrammes worth $216.44 million in the previous season.

Kericho emerged as the leading county, selling six million kilogrammes worth Sh5.29 billion. Murang’a followed with 4.96 million kilogrammes valued at Sh4.33 billion, while Nyeri came third with 4.63 million kilogrammes worth Sh4.18 billion.

Direct Sales Bring Higher Returns

Kirinyaga offers another example of the potential impact of improved marketing.

Farmers in the county shared Sh7.4 billion from the latest crop, with cherry payments ranging from Sh104 to Sh157.40 per kilogramme and averaging Sh139.

Farmer Edward Njoka, who expanded his coffee farm from one acre to 10 acres, harvested 46,000 kilogrammes from eight mature acres.

For him, however, higher earnings do not erase one of coffee farming’s biggest problems: production costs.

The difference between auction and direct sales also stands out. Between October 2025 and June 2026, direct coffee sales averaged Sh52,400 per 50kg bag, compared with approximately Sh43,900 through the auction system.

That gap shows why access to better-paying markets could become just as important as increasing production.

Tea Still Has a Farmer Income Problem

Tea tells a more complicated story.

Kenya remains one of the world’s major tea producers, but increased output has not consistently resulted in higher returns for growers.

Tea production reached 598.5 million kilogrammes in 2024 before dropping to 550.4 million kilogrammes in 2025.

More importantly for farmers, the average gross commodity price fell from Sh29,736 per 100kg in 2024 to Sh27,806 in 2025.

The sector nevertheless generated a marketed value of Sh218.79 billion in 2025, highlighting the gap that can exist between the value of an export industry and what individual farmers take home.

The government has been pushing reforms around tea auctions, direct sales, value addition and payment systems.

Ruto has previously pointed to an increase in the average green leaf price from Sh51 per kilogramme in 2022 to Sh64 in 2024.

However, continued intervention shows that the sector still faces challenges. Agriculture Principal Secretary Paul Ronoh directed KTDA-managed factories in western Kenya to review monthly payments and maintain a minimum payment of Sh26 per kilogramme.

Authorities have also moved to address alleged manipulation of weighing systems at factories.

For tea farmers, the bigger question remains whether Kenya can turn its massive export earnings into more predictable and meaningful household incomes.

Sugar Farmers Finally See Faster Payments

Sugarcane farming has also recorded significant changes, particularly around payment.

KNBS data shows the average price paid to sugarcane farmers increased from Sh4,514 per tonne in 2022 to Sh5,437 in 2025.

Sugar production also jumped sharply, rising 72.5 per cent from 472,800 tonnes in 2023 to 815,500 tonnes in 2024.

At Nzoia, the leasing of the miller to West Kenya Sugar Company has been followed by reports of more regular payments.

Farmer Ferdinand Makhanu, who has spent more than two decades growing sugarcane, said growers previously faced lengthy payment delays and sometimes received their money in installments.

He says the situation has since improved, with farmers receiving payments more regularly.

Nzoia CEO Sohan Sharma said more than Sh700 million had been paid to farmers through cane payments, while workers’ salaries and weekly farmer payments were also being maintained.

But the sector still has major hurdles.

A Senate inquiry found continued complaints over cane prices, production expenses and payment delays. Productivity is another concern, with yields in the Nzoia region estimated at about 49.71 tonnes per hectare, compared with a potential 85 to 100 tonnes under better farming conditions.

The message is clear: getting farmers paid on time is important, but profitability ultimately depends on both good prices and higher yields.

Dairy Farmers See Better Prices and Bigger Markets

Dairy farming has also shown measurable progress.

Milk production increased by 3.5 per cent to 5.5 billion litres in 2025, while marketed milk rose by 11.5 per cent to one billion litres.

The average gross price received by farmers reached Sh49.58 per litre in 2025, up from Sh47.20 in 2022.

In Meru, farmers supplying Meru Central Dairy Cooperative Union were expected to receive Sh52 per litre from August, compared with Sh50 previously.

The government has also focused on reducing production costs through cheaper inputs and improved breeding services.

The price of sexed semen, for example, was reduced from Sh7,000 to Sh1,400, while dairy meal at an animal feed mill in Meru was being sold at Sh2,800 for a 50kg bag, down from Sh3,200.

For farmers, such interventions can make a difference because the price received for milk is only one part of the equation. Feed, breeding, veterinary care and other costs determine how much money actually remains at household level.

The next step is likely to be quality-based pricing, where farmers producing higher-quality milk can earn more.

Cotton Shows What Technology Can Do

Cotton is another sector where government support has helped improve production.

The average price for seed cotton increased from Sh5,609 per 100kg in 2022 to Sh7,200 in 2025.

Cotton delivered to marketing boards also increased from just 3,800 tonnes in 2022 to 8,800 tonnes in 2025.

Improved seed varieties, extension support and better market connections have contributed to the growth.

Bt cotton has particularly demonstrated the potential for higher yields. One farmer in Busia reported harvesting around 800kg from an acre after switching to the technology, compared with approximately 300kg previously.

The farmer also reported an increase in the selling price from Sh50 to Sh72 per kilogramme.

But cotton has a major weakness: Kenya does not produce enough to meet the needs of its textile industry.

Estimates place local production far below national demand, meaning farmers need a much larger and more reliable market if higher yields are to translate into sustainable incomes.

Without a stronger cotton-to-textile value chain, increased production alone may not be enough.

Maize: Lower Costs Could Matter Most

For maize farmers, government intervention has largely centred on reducing the cost of production.

The subsidised fertiliser programme has been one of the administration’s major agricultural interventions, allowing farmers to access fertiliser at prices below prevailing market rates during planting seasons.

Efforts to improve grain storage and strengthen market access have also been part of the broader strategy.

For maize growers, lower input costs can be just as important as higher selling prices because the size of the final profit depends heavily on what farmers spend before harvesting.

The Verdict

Four years into Ruto’s presidency, Kenya’s agricultural story is neither a complete success nor a failure.

There are clear gains.

Coffee farmers have benefited from faster payments, improved marketing options and stronger earnings. Sugar farmers are seeing more reliable payments in some areas. Dairy production and farmer prices have increased, while cotton is showing how improved technology can raise yields.

But the challenges remain significant.

Tea demonstrates that a lucrative export industry does not automatically guarantee strong farmer incomes. Sugar still needs better productivity, cotton requires a larger market, and across several value chains farmers continue to deal with high production costs.

The real test for the agriculture agenda will therefore not simply be how much Kenya produces or how much a crop earns in export markets.

It will be whether farmers can consistently produce, sell and remain with enough profit to make farming worth their while.

For Kenya’s farmers, the real measure of reform is simple: when the harvest comes, how much of the money actually stays in the farmer’s pocket?